New poll put Liberals ahead of Tories for first time in a year

OTTAWA (CP) - Respondents to a new national poll placed the federal Liberals ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in almost a year.


However, the narrow Liberal lead in the Decima poll was within the three-percentage-point margin of error, which means it's too close to say who's really ahead. The Grits had the support of 33 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Tories had 31 per cent, the NDP had 15 per cent and the Green party had 10.


The results of the survey, provided to The Canadian Press, may give Liberals pause for thought as they prepare to select a new leader in two weeks.


The Liberals' improved poll results over recent months have already had an influence as the party approaches its leadership convention.


Much of the talk in Liberal circles earlier this year was about picking someone to lead a rebuilding process during a lengthy exile in opposition.


But that talk is quickly narrowing to a single question: Which leadership candidate can immediately step in and win a general election?


Decima's head pollster said the next election appears - at this point - to be anyone's game.


"The impact of the choice of Liberal leader remains unknown," said Decima chief executive Bruce Anderson.


"However, these numbers underscore that the national race continues to tighten, and the outcome of the next election is becoming less predictable."


Decima polls had the Liberals consistently behind the Tories ever since the income-trust scandal exploded in the middle of the last election campaign in late December 2005.


The Grits had even collapsed briefly into a tie with the third-place NDP by February, before their results began to improve in the spring.


The shift has been most dramatic in Quebec.


Just months ago, the Liberals were also-rans in the province and the Tories were competing with the first-place Bloc Quebecois. Every Decima poll since late summer has shown that trend reversing.


In the most recent survey, the Liberals held a crushing lead over the Tories with the support of 26 per cent of respondents, compared with 12 per cent for the Conservatives.


The Bloc Quebecois still towered above all others with 44 per cent support in the province.


However, the margin of error for regional breakdowns is much higher than for the national survey.


One bright spot for the Conservatives was that they were still neck-and-neck with the Liberals in Ontario. The Grits were at 38 per cent in the province, while the Tories were at 37 per cent, though again the margin of error is much higher for the provincial breakdown so it's impossible to say who's really ahead.

The poll of 1,126 Canadians was conducted from Nov. 9 to 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.